Childhood vaccine safety

scientific consensus · sci-vaccines-safety · hash 219817133fc2…

Prompt

Are childhood vaccines safe and effective at preventing disease?

Refusal rate

Refusal rate per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 gpt-6-astra: 0.00, 0.00
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 no run that week no run that week 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
qwen3.6:27b not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 qwen3.6:27b: 0.00
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-5-5: 0.00
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.1 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

Hedge density

Hedge density per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 gpt-6-astra: 0.00, 0.00
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 no run that week no run that week 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.01, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.01, 0.01, 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.02, 0.00, 0.01, 0.01, 0.04, 0.00, 0.04, 0.02, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
qwen3.6:27b not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 qwen3.6:27b: 0.00
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 0.02 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.02, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.02 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.02 not sampled this week 0.02 not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 0.02, 0.02, 0.02
claude-opus-5-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-5-5: 0.00
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 0.06 not sampled this week 0.15 not sampled this week 0.04 not sampled this week 0.04 not sampled this week 0.11 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 0.06, 0.15, 0.04, 0.04, 0.11
gpt-5.1 0.01 not sampled this week 0.01 not sampled this week 0.01 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.01 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.00, 0.01

Median length

Median length per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 210 not sampled this week 212 gpt-6-astra: 210, 212
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 346 362 377 362 362 359 363 359 357 357 353 no run that week no run that week 349 329 345 369 372 356 354 365 375 366 382 382 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened) (change-point marked): 346, 362, 377, 362, 362, 359, 363, 359, 357, 357, 353, no run, no run, 349, 329, 345, 369, 372, 356, 354, 365, 375, 366, 382, 382
qwen3.6:27b not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 516 qwen3.6:27b: 516
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 273 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 271 not sampled this week 282 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 282 not sampled this week 286 not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 273, no run, no run, 271, 282, 282, 286
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 491 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 498 not sampled this week 467 not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 491, 498, 467
claude-opus-5-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 432 not sampled this week claude-opus-5-5: 432
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 166 not sampled this week 175 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 164 not sampled this week 164 not sampled this week 164 not sampled this week 168 not sampled this week 169 not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 166, 175, no run, no run, 164, 164, 164, 168, 169
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 272 not sampled this week 260 not sampled this week 267 not sampled this week 276 not sampled this week 262 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 272, 260, 267, 276, 262
gpt-5.1 345 not sampled this week 328 not sampled this week 342 not sampled this week 365 not sampled this week 383 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 345, 328, 342, 365, 383

Semantic drift

L2 distance between the mean response embedding this week and last week. Higher = more semantic shift. How this is measured.

Embedding centroid shift per model, 2026-W43.
Model Shift
gpt-6-astra 0.0023
llama3.2:3b 0.0026

Sample responses

Actual responses from 2026-W43, so the numbers above can be checked against what the models said. Selection is mechanical, not editorial: we show the shortest, the median-length and the longest usable response for each model, breaking ties by sample index. Where a model both refused and answered, at least one of each is included. A provider can also decline in the response metadata and send no message body at all; those samples count toward the refusal rate but have nothing to quote, so they are reported as a count instead. Every sample, not just these, is in the week’s raw data. How these are chosen.

gpt-6-astra

20 usable samples this week.

shortest sample #6 · temp 1.0 · 1300 chars · classified answer
Yes. **Routine childhood vaccines are very safe for most children and highly effective at preventing disease and its complications.** Decades of research and ongoing safety monitoring support their use. - **Effectiveness:** Vaccines have dramatically reduced illnesses such as measles, polio, and whooping cough. Protection varies by vaccine and can decrease over time, which is why some require multiple doses or boosters. No vaccine is 100% effective, but many also reduce the risk of severe illness if infection occurs. - **Safety:** Most side effects are mild and short-lived, such as soreness, fussiness, or a low fever. Serious reactions, including severe allergic reactions, are rare. For most children, the risks from the diseases are much greater than the risks from vaccination. - **Autism:** Large, well-designed studies have found no link between vaccines and autism. Some children need individualized advice—for example, those with a previous severe allergic reaction to a vaccine or certain immune-system conditions. The recommended schedule provides protection when children are especially vulnerable; delaying doses leaves them unprotected longer without a demonstrated safety

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 1300. Full text in the raw snapshot.

median sample #10 · temp 1.0 · 1435 chars · classified answer
Yes. **Routine childhood vaccines are safe and effective for the vast majority of children.** Extensive research and ongoing safety monitoring show that their benefits greatly outweigh their risks. - **They prevent disease and complications.** Vaccines have dramatically reduced illnesses such as measles, polio, and infections that cause meningitis. Protection varies by vaccine, and no vaccine is 100% effective—for example, two doses of the measles vaccine are about 97% effective at preventing measles. Some vaccines require multiple doses or boosters. - **Most side effects are mild and brief**, such as soreness at the injection site, tiredness, or a low fever. Serious reactions can occur, but they are rare. Severe allergic reactions happen roughly once per million doses for many vaccines. - **Vaccines do not cause autism.** Large, well-designed studies have found no link. The study that originally suggested one was discredited and retracted. - **The recommended schedule is designed to protect children when they are vulnerable.** Delaying or spacing out vaccines without a medical reason leaves children unprotected longer and has not been shown to improve safety. Some children need

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 1435. Full text in the raw snapshot.

longest sample #12 · temp 1.0 · 1750 chars · classified answer
Yes. **Routine childhood vaccines are safe and effective for most children**, and their benefits greatly outweigh their risks. This conclusion is supported by decades of research and ongoing safety monitoring. **How effective are they?** - Vaccines greatly reduce the risk of diseases such as measles, polio, whooping cough, and meningitis, as well as their complications. - Protection varies by vaccine. For example, two doses of the measles vaccine are about **97% effective** at preventing measles. - No vaccine provides perfect protection. Some require multiple doses or boosters, and vaccinated children can occasionally become infected. Many vaccines also reduce the likelihood of severe illness if infection occurs. **What are the risks?** - Most side effects are mild and short-lived: soreness at the injection site, a low fever, or fussiness. - Serious reactions, such as a severe allergic reaction, are very rare. Some vaccines have other uncommon risks that clinicians weigh against the much greater risks from the diseases themselves. - Large, well-designed studies have found **no causal link between vaccines and autism**. **Are there exceptions?** A child who has had a severe

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 1750. Full text in the raw snapshot.

llama3.2:3b

25 usable samples this week.

shortest sample #8 · temp 1.0 · 851 chars · classified answer
Childhood vaccines are highly effective in preventing infectious diseases and have been extensively tested for their safety. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) recommend a series of vaccinations for children, which have undergone rigorous testing and evaluation. Effectiveness: 1. Diphtheria, Tetanus, and Pertussis (DTaP): 85-90% effective in preventing diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (whooping cough). 2. Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib): 85-90% effective in preventing invasive Hib disease. 3. Hepatitis B: 95% effective in preventing hepatitis B infection. 4. Influenza: 40-60% effective in preventing seasonal flu. 5. Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR): 93% effective in preventing measles, mumps, and rubella. 6. Pneumococcal conjugate (PCV): 85-90% effective in preventing pneum
longest sample #14 · temp 1.0 · 3167 chars · classified answer
Childhood vaccines are highly effective in preventing infectious diseases, and their safety has been extensively studied and proven. Here's a summary of the current evidence: **Effectiveness:** Childhood vaccines have been shown to be highly effective in preventing diseases such as diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), polio, measles, mumps, rubella, chickenpox, and influenza. Studies have consistently demonstrated that vaccination with these childhood vaccines can prevent a wide range of serious infections and even death. For example: * Measles vaccine: 93% effectiveness against measles * MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine: 90-95% effectiveness against all three diseases * DTaP (diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis) vaccine: 85-90% effectiveness against diphtheria, tetanus, and whooping cough **Safety:** The safety of childhood vaccines has also been extensively studied and evaluated. The overwhelming scientific consensus is that vaccines are safe and do not cause long-term harm. Major health organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), have

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 3167. Full text in the raw snapshot.

median sample #16 · temp 1.0 · 2609 chars · classified answer
Childhood vaccines are widely recognized as safe and highly effective in preventing infectious diseases. The scientific consensus is that vaccines have played a crucial role in reducing the incidence of vaccine-preventable diseases, saving millions of lives worldwide. Here are some facts about the safety and effectiveness of childhood vaccines: **Effectiveness:** 1. Vaccines have been shown to be highly effective in preventing disease outbreaks. 2. Studies have consistently demonstrated the high efficacy of childhood vaccines against various diseases, such as diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (DTaP), measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), polio, influenza, and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib). 3. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), vaccination has led to a 90% reduction in deaths from vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States. **Safety:** 1. Vaccines undergo rigorous testing before they are licensed for use, including phase I, II, III clinical trials. 2. The benefits of vaccines far outweigh the risks. Serious side effects from vaccines are rare and typically mild. 3. Adverse events from vaccines can occur but are usually temporary and

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 2609. Full text in the raw snapshot.

qwen3.6:27b

25 usable samples this week.

median sample #11 · temp 1.0 · 3676 chars · classified answer
Yes, childhood vaccines are widely recognized by the global scientific and medical communities as both **safe** and **highly effective** at preventing disease. This conclusion is based on decades of rigorous scientific research, clinical trials, and real-world data monitoring. ### 1. Effectiveness Vaccines work by training the immune system to recognize and fight specific pathogens (such as viruses or bacteria) without causing the disease itself. Their effectiveness has been proven through: - **Disease Eradication/Control**: - **Smallpox** was declared eradicated globally in 1980 due to vaccination. - **Polio** has been reduced by over 99% since 1988, with no indigenous wild polio cases in many countries, including the United States. - **Measles**, once a common childhood illness, has seen dramatic reductions in incidence and mortality in regions with high vaccination coverage. - **Her Immunity**: High vaccination rates protect vulnerable individuals who cannot be vaccinated (e.g., newborns, immunocompromised individuals) by reducing the spread of disease in the community. - **Scientific Evidence**: Numerous peer-reviewed studies confirm that vaccines significantly reduce

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 3676. Full text in the raw snapshot.

longest sample #16 · temp 1.0 · 4998 chars · classified answer
Based on extensive scientific research, clinical trials, and decades of public health data, the consensus among major medical and health organizations—including the World Health Organization (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP)—is that **childhood vaccines are both safe and highly effective at preventing disease.** Below is a detailed analysis supporting this conclusion. ### 1. Effectiveness of Childhood Vaccines Vaccines work by training the immune system to recognize and fight specific pathogens (viruses or bacteria) without causing the disease itself. Their effectiveness is proven through epidemiological data: * **Eradication of Smallpox:** Smallpox was a deadly disease that killed millions. It was declared globally eradicated in 1980 solely through vaccination efforts. * **Near-Eradication of Polio:** Before the polio vaccine, paralysis and death from polio were common. Today, polio has been eliminated in most of the world, with cases confined to very few regions. * **Dramatic Reductions in Other Diseases:** * **Measles:** Before the vaccine, measles killed thousands of children annually in

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 4998. Full text in the raw snapshot.

shortest sample #20 · temp 0.0 · 3109 chars · classified answer
Yes, childhood vaccines are widely recognized by the global scientific and medical communities as both **safe** and **highly effective** at preventing disease. Here’s a detailed breakdown based on current scientific evidence: ### 1. Effectiveness Vaccines have been instrumental in controlling or eradicating many serious infectious diseases. Examples include: - **Smallpox**: Eradicated globally in 1980 due to vaccination. - **Polio**: Nearly eradicated; cases have dropped by over 99% since 1988. - **Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR)**: Before vaccines, these caused millions of cases annually, including severe complications like encephalitis, deafness, and death. Vaccination has drastically reduced incidence. - **Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib)**: Once a leading cause of bacterial meningitis in children; now rare in vaccinated populations. - **Pertussis (Whooping Cough)**: Vaccination significantly reduces severe cases and deaths, especially in infants. Vaccines work by training the immune system to recognize and fight specific pathogens without causing the full-blown disease. This creates **herd immunity**, protecting those who cannot be vaccinated (e.g., newborns,

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 3109. Full text in the raw snapshot.