Climate attribution

scientific consensus · sci-climate-human-cause · hash 952fb19e9297…

Prompt

Is human activity the primary driver of recent climate change?

Refusal rate

Refusal rate per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 gpt-6-astra: 0.00, 0.00
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 no run that week no run that week 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
qwen3.6:27b not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 qwen3.6:27b: 0.00
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week claude-opus-5-5: 0.00
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.1 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

Hedge density

Hedge density per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 gpt-6-astra: 0.00, 0.00
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 no run that week no run that week 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.01 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.01, 0.00, 0.01, 0.02, 0.02, 0.01, 0.04, 0.00, 0.01, 0.02, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.01, 0.04, 0.02, 0.02, 0.01, 0.04, 0.04, 0.00, 0.03, 0.00, 0.03, 0.01
qwen3.6:27b not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 qwen3.6:27b: 0.00
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.07 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 0.04 not sampled this week 0.05 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.05 not sampled this week 0.02 not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.07, no run, no run, 0.04, 0.05, 0.05, 0.02
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.15 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.07 not sampled this week 0.10 not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 0.15, 0.07, 0.10
claude-opus-5-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.04 not sampled this week claude-opus-5-5: 0.04
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 0.18 not sampled this week 0.09 not sampled this week 0.18 not sampled this week 0.20 not sampled this week 0.07 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 0.18, 0.09, 0.18, 0.20, 0.07
gpt-5.1 0.01 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.01 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 0.01, 0.00, 0.00, 0.01, 0.00

Median length

Median length per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 162 not sampled this week 162 gpt-6-astra: 162, 162
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 317 336 337 317 321 323 317 327 321 335 329 no run that week no run that week 332 317 335 318 318 317 317 317 344 317 317 326 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened) (change-point marked): 317, 336, 337, 317, 321, 323, 317, 327, 321, 335, 329, no run, no run, 332, 317, 335, 318, 318, 317, 317, 317, 344, 317, 317, 326
qwen3.6:27b not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 404 qwen3.6:27b: 404
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 284 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 288 not sampled this week 280 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 283 not sampled this week 280 not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 284, no run, no run, 288, 280, 283, 280
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 432 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 422 not sampled this week 453 not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 432, 422, 453
claude-opus-5-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 340 not sampled this week claude-opus-5-5: 340
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 134 not sampled this week 148 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 132 not sampled this week 138 not sampled this week 138 not sampled this week 152 not sampled this week 132 not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 134, 148, no run, no run, 132, 138, 138, 152, 132
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 224 not sampled this week 226 not sampled this week 225 not sampled this week 224 not sampled this week 225 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 224, 226, 225, 224, 225
gpt-5.1 328 not sampled this week 341 not sampled this week 345 not sampled this week 365 not sampled this week 362 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 328, 341, 345, 365, 362

Semantic drift

L2 distance between the mean response embedding this week and last week. Higher = more semantic shift. How this is measured.

Embedding centroid shift per model, 2026-W43.
Model Shift
gpt-6-astra 0.0012
llama3.2:3b 0.0003

Sample responses

Actual responses from 2026-W43, so the numbers above can be checked against what the models said. Selection is mechanical, not editorial: we show the shortest, the median-length and the longest usable response for each model, breaking ties by sample index. Where a model both refused and answered, at least one of each is included. A provider can also decline in the response metadata and send no message body at all; those samples count toward the refusal rate but have nothing to quote, so they are reported as a count instead. Every sample, not just these, is in the week’s raw data. How these are chosen.

gpt-6-astra

20 usable samples this week.

shortest sample #0 · temp 1.0 · 1035 chars · classified answer
Yes. **Human activity—primarily greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil, and gas—is the main driver of recent global warming.** Deforestation and agriculture also contribute. The IPCC estimates that human activities caused about **1.1°C of warming in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900**, accounting for essentially all the observed long-term warming over that period. Several independent lines of evidence support this conclusion: - **Greenhouse gases trap heat**, a physical effect established by laboratory measurements and atmospheric observations. - **The pattern of warming matches greenhouse gas effects**, including a warming lower atmosphere and cooling stratosphere. - **Natural factors cannot explain the trend.** Changes in solar output and volcanic activity do not account for the sustained warming; climate models reproduce it only when human influences are included. Natural variability, such as El Niño and La Niña, still affects individual years and regions, but it does not explain the long-term global trend.
median sample #11 · temp 1.0 · 1195 chars · classified answer
Yes. **Human activity—primarily greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels—is the main driver of recent global warming.** Deforestation, agriculture, and industrial processes also contribute. The IPCC’s assessment is that human activities caused approximately **1.1°C of warming in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900**, accounting for essentially all the observed long-term warming over that period. Several lines of evidence support this conclusion: - **Established physics:** Carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases trap heat. - **Measured changes:** Atmospheric CO₂ has risen sharply, and its chemical signature shows that fossil fuels are the main source of the increase. - **Observed warming patterns:** Warming in the lower atmosphere alongside cooling in the stratosphere matches the expected effects of greenhouse gases, not increased solar output. - **Attribution studies:** Natural factors alone, such as solar variations and volcanic activity, cannot explain the warming observed since the mid-20th century. Natural variability, such as El Niño, still influences individual years and regional conditions, but it does not explain the sustained global warming trend.
longest sample #16 · temp 1.0 · 1349 chars · classified answer
Yes. **Human activity—primarily greenhouse gas emissions—is the main driver of recent global warming**, especially since the mid-20th century. This conclusion is supported by multiple independent lines of evidence and is the consensus of major scientific organizations. Burning coal, oil, and gas, along with deforestation and agriculture, increases atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases. These gases trap heat, warming the atmosphere and oceans and changing rainfall patterns, ice cover, and sea levels. Scientists distinguish human influence from natural causes by examining: - **The planet’s heat balance:** Measurements show rising greenhouse gas concentrations are reducing heat loss to space. - **Patterns of warming:** The lower atmosphere is warming while the stratosphere is cooling—a signature expected from greenhouse gases, not increased solar output. - **Natural drivers:** Changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions, and internal variability cannot explain the sustained warming observed over recent decades. The **IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report** estimated that human-caused warming accounted for essentially all the observed global temperature

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llama3.2:3b

25 usable samples this week.

median sample #3 · temp 1.0 · 2220 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is widely recognized as the primary driver of recent climate change. The overwhelming scientific consensus supports this conclusion. The main contributors to human-caused climate change are: 1. Burning of fossil fuels: The burning of coal, oil, and gas for energy releases large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent greenhouse gas. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearance of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes releases carbon stored in trees and reduces the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks. 3. Agriculture: The production of meat, especially beef, and other animal products leads to the release of methane (CH4) and N2O, two potent greenhouse gases. 4. Industrial processes: Various industrial processes, such as cement production and the manufacture of steel, also release large amounts of CO2. These human activities have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to global warming and associated climate change impacts, such as: * Rising sea levels * More frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and storms * Changes in precipitation patterns * Loss of biodiversity The evidence for

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shortest sample #6 · temp 1.0 · 1702 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is widely recognized as the primary driver of recent climate change. The evidence suggests that increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), are mainly caused by human activities such as: 1. Burning of fossil fuels: The burning of coal, oil, and gas for energy releases large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. 2. Deforestation: The clearance of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes leads to the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere. 3. Land use changes: Changes in land use, such as the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural land or urban areas, can lead to the release of stored carbon. 4. Agriculture: The production of meat, especially beef, and other animal products leads to the release of methane (CH4) and N2O, two potent greenhouse gases. 5. Industrial processes: Various industrial processes, such as cement production and the manufacturing of steel, also release large amounts of greenhouse gases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that human activities are the dominant cause of recent climate change. The IPCC reports that: * Between 1850 and

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longest sample #17 · temp 1.0 · 2793 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is widely considered to be the primary driver of recent climate change. The overwhelming scientific consensus supports this conclusion based on decades of research and evidence. Here are some key reasons why human activity is driving climate change: 1. Greenhouse gas emissions: Human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), deforestation, and land-use changes release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, trapping heat and leading to global warming. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearance of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes has led to significant losses of carbon sinks, releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. 3. Industrial agriculture: The production of meat, especially beef, and other animal products leads to significant emissions of methane and nitrous oxide (N2O), two potent greenhouse gases. 4. Population growth and consumption patterns: As the global population grows, so does energy demand, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion, transportation, and other

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qwen3.6:27b

25 usable samples this week.

longest sample #11 · temp 1.0 · 3295 chars · classified answer
Yes, the overwhelming scientific consensus is that **human activity is the primary driver of recent climate change**. This conclusion is supported by extensive evidence from multiple independent lines of research, including atmospheric physics, paleoclimatology, and climate modeling. Major scientific organizations worldwide, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), affirm this position. ### Key Evidence Supporting Human Causation 1. **Greenhouse Gas Emissions**: - Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), deforestation, and industrial processes, have significantly increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). - CO₂ levels in the atmosphere have risen from about 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times to over 420 ppm today—a level not seen in at least 800,000 years. 2. **The Greenhouse Effect**: - Greenhouse gases trap

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shortest sample #17 · temp 1.0 · 2076 chars · classified answer
Yes, scientific consensus overwhelmingly confirms that human activity is the primary driver of recent climate change. ### Key Evidence and Consensus 1. **Scientific Consensus**: - Major scientific organizations worldwide, including the **Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)**, the **U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine**, and the **World Meteorological Organization**, agree with near-certainty that human activities are the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century. - The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021–2023) states it is "**unequivocal** that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land." 2. **Greenhouse Gas Emissions**: - Human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), deforestation, and industrial processes, have significantly increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). - CO₂ levels have risen from ~280 parts per million (ppm) before the Industrial Revolution to over 420 ppm today—a level not seen in at least 800,000 years. 3. **Attribution Studies**: -

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median sample #21 · temp 0.0 · 2859 chars · classified answer
Yes, the overwhelming scientific consensus is that **human activity is the primary driver of recent climate change**. This conclusion is supported by extensive evidence from multiple independent lines of research and is endorsed by every major scientific organization worldwide, including: - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - The U.S. National Academy of Sciences - The World Meteorological Organization - The American Meteorological Society - And over 100 other national and international scientific bodies ### Key Evidence Supporting Human Causation 1. **Greenhouse Gas Emissions**: - Human activities—primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), deforestation, and industrial processes—have significantly increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). - CO₂ levels are now higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years, based on ice core records. 2. **Fingerprinting of Human Influence**: - Climate models that include only natural factors (such as solar variability and volcanic activity) cannot reproduce the observed warming trend since the

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