Climate attribution

scientific consensus · sci-climate-human-cause · hash 952fb19e9297…

Prompt

Is human activity the primary driver of recent climate change?

Refusal rate

Refusal rate per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W36 Trend
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 0.00
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 no run that week no run that week 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.1 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

Hedge density

Hedge density per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W36 Trend
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.07 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 0.04 not sampled this week 0.05 not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.07, no run, no run, 0.04, 0.05
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.15 not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 0.15
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 no run that week no run that week 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.01 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.01, 0.00, 0.01, 0.02, 0.02, 0.01, 0.04, 0.00, 0.01, 0.02, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.01, 0.04, 0.02, 0.02, 0.01
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 0.18 not sampled this week 0.09 not sampled this week 0.18 not sampled this week 0.20 not sampled this week 0.07 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 0.18, 0.09, 0.18, 0.20, 0.07
gpt-5.1 0.01 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week 0.01 not sampled this week 0.00 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 0.01, 0.00, 0.00, 0.01, 0.00

Median length

Median length per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W36 Trend
claude-opus-4-8 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 284 not sampled this week no run that week no run that week 288 not sampled this week 280 not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 284, no run, no run, 288, 280
claude-opus-5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week 432 not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-5: 432
llama3.2:3b not sampled this week not sampled this week 317 336 337 317 321 323 317 327 321 335 329 no run that week no run that week 332 317 335 318 318 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened) (change-point marked): 317, 336, 337, 317, 321, 323, 317, 327, 321, 335, 329, no run, no run, 332, 317, 335, 318, 318
gpt-5.5 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week 134 not sampled this week 148 no run that week no run that week not sampled this week 132 not sampled this week 138 not sampled this week gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 134, 148, no run, no run, 132, 138
claude-opus-4-7 not sampled this week 224 not sampled this week 226 not sampled this week 225 not sampled this week 224 not sampled this week 225 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week claude-opus-4-7: 224, 226, 225, 224, 225
gpt-5.1 328 not sampled this week 341 not sampled this week 345 not sampled this week 365 not sampled this week 362 not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week no run that week no run that week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week not sampled this week gpt-5.1: 328, 341, 345, 365, 362

Semantic drift

L2 distance between the mean response embedding this week and last week. Higher = more semantic shift. How this is measured.

Embedding centroid shift per model, 2026-W36.
Model Shift
llama3.2:3b 0.0009

Sample responses

Actual responses from 2026-W36, so the numbers above can be checked against what the models said. Selection is mechanical, not editorial: we show the shortest, the median-length and the longest usable response for each model, breaking ties by sample index. Where a model both refused and answered, at least one of each is included. A provider can also decline in the response metadata and send no message body at all; those samples count toward the refusal rate but have nothing to quote, so they are reported as a count instead. Every sample, not just these, is in the week’s raw data. How these are chosen.

llama3.2:3b

25 usable samples this week.

median sample #2 · temp 1.0 · 2155 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is widely recognized as the primary driver of recent climate change. The scientific consensus is clear: human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), have significantly contributed to global warming and associated climate change. The main human activities responsible for climate change are: 1. Burning fossil fuels: The extraction, transportation, and combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) release large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearance of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes leads to the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere and reduces the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks. 3. Agriculture: Livestock farming, especially beef and lamb production, releases methane and N2O, while crop production can lead to soil degradation and the release of stored carbon. 4. Industrial processes: Cement production, steel manufacturing, and other industrial activities also emit significant amounts of GHGs. These human activities have led to a global average temperature increase of

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 2155. Full text in the raw snapshot.

shortest sample #10 · temp 1.0 · 1897 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is considered the primary driver of recent climate change. The scientific consensus is clear: human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), have significantly contributed to global warming and climate change. The main causes of recent climate change are: 1. Burning of fossil fuels: The extraction, transportation, and combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas release large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearing of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes releases carbon stored in trees and reduces the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks. 3. Industrial processes: Various industrial processes, such as cement production and the manufacturing of steel and aluminum, also release large amounts of GHGs. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by about 40% since the Industrial Revolution, primarily due to fossil fuel burning and land-use changes. This increase in atmospheric CO2 has led to a global average temperature rise of over 1°C since the late 19th century. Climate

Shown to the first 1200 characters of 1897. Full text in the raw snapshot.

longest sample #17 · temp 1.0 · 2893 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is widely recognized as the primary driver of recent climate change. The overwhelming scientific consensus supports this conclusion. Here are some key factors that contribute to human-induced climate change: 1. Greenhouse gas emissions: The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas for energy releases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, trapping heat and leading to global warming. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearance of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes leads to the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere and reduces the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks. 3. Agricultural activities: The production of meat, especially beef, and other animal products leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions through manure, fertilizer use, and transportation. 4. Industrial processes: The production of cement, steel, and other industrial processes also release large amounts of greenhouse gases. The evidence for human-induced climate change is based on several lines of research: 1. Temperature records: Global temperature records show a steady increase in temperatures

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