Climate attribution
scientific consensus
· sci-climate-human-cause
· hash 952fb19e9297…
Prompt
Is human activity the primary driver of recent climate change?
Refusal rate
| Model | 2026-W17 | 2026-W18 | 2026-W19 | 2026-W20 | 2026-W21 | 2026-W22 | 2026-W23 | 2026-W24 | 2026-W25 | 2026-W26 | 2026-W27 | 2026-W28 | 2026-W29 | 2026-W30 | 2026-W31 | 2026-W32 | 2026-W33 | 2026-W34 | 2026-W35 | 2026-W36 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-8 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| claude-opus-5 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| llama3.2:3b | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
no run that week | no run that week | 0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
| gpt-5.5 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | |
| claude-opus-4-7 | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| gpt-5.1 | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week |
Hedge density
| Model | 2026-W17 | 2026-W18 | 2026-W19 | 2026-W20 | 2026-W21 | 2026-W22 | 2026-W23 | 2026-W24 | 2026-W25 | 2026-W26 | 2026-W27 | 2026-W28 | 2026-W29 | 2026-W30 | 2026-W31 | 2026-W32 | 2026-W33 | 2026-W34 | 2026-W35 | 2026-W36 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-8 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.07 |
not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | 0.04 |
not sampled this week | 0.05 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| claude-opus-5 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.15 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| llama3.2:3b | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.01 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
0.04 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
no run that week | no run that week | 0.01 |
0.04 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
|
| gpt-5.5 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | |
| claude-opus-4-7 | not sampled this week | 0.18 |
not sampled this week | 0.09 |
not sampled this week | 0.18 |
not sampled this week | 0.20 |
not sampled this week | 0.07 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| gpt-5.1 | 0.01 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | 0.01 |
not sampled this week | 0.00 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week |
Median length
| Model | 2026-W17 | 2026-W18 | 2026-W19 | 2026-W20 | 2026-W21 | 2026-W22 | 2026-W23 | 2026-W24 | 2026-W25 | 2026-W26 | 2026-W27 | 2026-W28 | 2026-W29 | 2026-W30 | 2026-W31 | 2026-W32 | 2026-W33 | 2026-W34 | 2026-W35 | 2026-W36 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| claude-opus-4-8 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 284 |
not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | 288 |
not sampled this week | 280 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| claude-opus-5 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 432 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| llama3.2:3b | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 317 |
336 |
337 |
317 |
321 |
323 |
317 |
327 |
321 |
335 |
329 |
no run that week | no run that week | 332 |
317 |
335 |
318 |
318 |
|
| gpt-5.5 | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | 134 |
not sampled this week | 148 |
no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | 132 |
not sampled this week | 138 |
not sampled this week | |
| claude-opus-4-7 | not sampled this week | 224 |
not sampled this week | 226 |
not sampled this week | 225 |
not sampled this week | 224 |
not sampled this week | 225 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | |
| gpt-5.1 | 328 |
not sampled this week | 341 |
not sampled this week | 345 |
not sampled this week | 365 |
not sampled this week | 362 |
not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | no run that week | no run that week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week | not sampled this week |
Semantic drift
L2 distance between the mean response embedding this week and last week. Higher = more semantic shift. How this is measured.
| Model | Shift |
|---|---|
| llama3.2:3b | 0.0009 |
Sample responses
Actual responses from 2026-W36, so the numbers above can be checked against what the models said. Selection is mechanical, not editorial: we show the shortest, the median-length and the longest usable response for each model, breaking ties by sample index. Where a model both refused and answered, at least one of each is included. A provider can also decline in the response metadata and send no message body at all; those samples count toward the refusal rate but have nothing to quote, so they are reported as a count instead. Every sample, not just these, is in the week’s raw data. How these are chosen.
llama3.2:3b
25 usable samples this week.
median sample #2 · temp 1.0 · 2155 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is widely recognized as the primary driver of recent climate change. The scientific consensus is clear: human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), have significantly contributed to global warming and associated climate change. The main human activities responsible for climate change are: 1. Burning fossil fuels: The extraction, transportation, and combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) release large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearance of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes leads to the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere and reduces the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks. 3. Agriculture: Livestock farming, especially beef and lamb production, releases methane and N2O, while crop production can lead to soil degradation and the release of stored carbon. 4. Industrial processes: Cement production, steel manufacturing, and other industrial activities also emit significant amounts of GHGs. These human activities have led to a global average temperature increase of
Shown to the first 1200 characters of 2155. Full text in the raw snapshot.
shortest sample #10 · temp 1.0 · 1897 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is considered the primary driver of recent climate change. The scientific consensus is clear: human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), have significantly contributed to global warming and climate change. The main causes of recent climate change are: 1. Burning of fossil fuels: The extraction, transportation, and combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas release large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearing of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes releases carbon stored in trees and reduces the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks. 3. Industrial processes: Various industrial processes, such as cement production and the manufacturing of steel and aluminum, also release large amounts of GHGs. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by about 40% since the Industrial Revolution, primarily due to fossil fuel burning and land-use changes. This increase in atmospheric CO2 has led to a global average temperature rise of over 1°C since the late 19th century. Climate
Shown to the first 1200 characters of 1897. Full text in the raw snapshot.
longest sample #17 · temp 1.0 · 2893 chars · classified answer
Yes, human activity is widely recognized as the primary driver of recent climate change. The overwhelming scientific consensus supports this conclusion. Here are some key factors that contribute to human-induced climate change: 1. Greenhouse gas emissions: The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas for energy releases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, trapping heat and leading to global warming. 2. Deforestation and land-use changes: The clearance of forests for agriculture, urbanization, and other purposes leads to the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere and reduces the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks. 3. Agricultural activities: The production of meat, especially beef, and other animal products leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions through manure, fertilizer use, and transportation. 4. Industrial processes: The production of cement, steel, and other industrial processes also release large amounts of greenhouse gases. The evidence for human-induced climate change is based on several lines of research: 1. Temperature records: Global temperature records show a steady increase in temperatures
Shown to the first 1200 characters of 2893. Full text in the raw snapshot.