First Moon landing

factual stability · fact-moon-landing · hash b3bd1f5ab77b…

Prompt

Who was the first person to walk on the Moon, and in what year?

Refusal rate

Refusal rate per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W36 Trend
claude-opus-4-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 no data
llama3.2:3b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-7: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.1: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

Hedge density

Hedge density per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W36 Trend
claude-opus-4-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 no data
llama3.2:3b 0.08 0.27 0.08 0.15 0.29 0.15 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.21 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.16 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.08, 0.27, 0.08, 0.15, 0.29, 0.15, 0.00, 0.08, 0.07, 0.10, 0.21, no run, no run, 0.19, 0.00, 0.00, 0.08, 0.16
gpt-5.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-7: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.1: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

Median length

Median length per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W36 Trend
claude-opus-4-8 43 41 43 claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 43, no run, no run, 41, 43
claude-opus-5 no data
llama3.2:3b 54 54 54 54 53 54 54 54 54 34 54 54 54 54 54 52 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened) (change-point marked): 54, 54, 54, 54, 53, 54, 54, 54, 54, 34, 54, no run, no run, 54, 54, 54, 54, 52
gpt-5.5 13 13 13 13 gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 13, 13, no run, no run, 13, 13
claude-opus-4-7 20 20 20 61 56 claude-opus-4-7: 20, 20, 20, 61, 56
gpt-5.1 13 13 13 13 13 gpt-5.1: 13, 13, 13, 13, 13

Semantic drift

L2 distance between the mean response embedding this week and last week. Higher = more semantic shift. How this is measured.

Embedding centroid shift per model, 2026-W36.
Model Shift
llama3.2:3b 0.0011

Sample responses

Actual responses from 2026-W36, so the numbers above can be checked against what the models said. Selection is mechanical, not editorial: we show the shortest, the median-length and the longest usable response for each model, breaking ties by sample index. Where a model both refused and answered, at least one of each is included. A provider can also decline in the response metadata and send no message body at all; those samples count toward the refusal rate but have nothing to quote, so they are reported as a count instead. Every sample, not just these, is in the week’s raw data. How these are chosen.

llama3.2:3b

25 usable samples this week.

shortest sample #5 · temp 1.0 · 138 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was Neil Armstrong. He stepped onto the lunar surface on July 20, 1969, during the Apollo 11 mission.
longest sample #13 · temp 1.0 · 693 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was Neil Armstrong. He stepped onto the lunar surface on July 20, 1969, as part of the Apollo 11 mission. However, it's worth noting that while Armstrong was the first person to set foot on the Moon, he famously stated "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind" after taking his first steps. This phrase has become an iconic moment in history and a symbol of humanity's achievements in space exploration. Armstrong and Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin spent about two and a half hours on the lunar surface, collecting samples and conducting experiments. Armstrong returned to Earth as part of the same mission, splashing down safely on July 24, 1969.
median sample #19 · temp 1.0 · 282 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was Neil Armstrong. He stepped onto the lunar surface on July 20, 1969, during the Apollo 11 mission. Armstrong famously declared, "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind," as he became the first human to set foot on the Moon.