First Moon landing

factual stability · fact-moon-landing · hash b3bd1f5ab77b…

Prompt

Who was the first person to walk on the Moon, and in what year?

Refusal rate

Refusal rate per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra 0.00 0.00 gpt-6-astra: 0.00, 0.00
llama3.2:3b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
qwen3.6:27b 0.00 qwen3.6:27b: 0.00
claude-opus-4-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-5: 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5-5 0.00 claude-opus-5-5: 0.00
gpt-5.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-7: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.1: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

Hedge density

Hedge density per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra 0.00 0.00 gpt-6-astra: 0.00, 0.00
llama3.2:3b 0.08 0.27 0.08 0.15 0.29 0.15 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.21 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.16 0.29 0.07 0.08 0.14 0.08 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened): 0.08, 0.27, 0.08, 0.15, 0.29, 0.15, 0.00, 0.08, 0.07, 0.10, 0.21, no run, no run, 0.19, 0.00, 0.00, 0.08, 0.16, 0.18, 0.16, 0.29, 0.07, 0.08, 0.14, 0.08
qwen3.6:27b 0.00 qwen3.6:27b: 0.00
claude-opus-4-8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-5: 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-5-5 0.00 claude-opus-5-5: 0.00
gpt-5.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 0.00, 0.00, no run, no run, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
claude-opus-4-7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 claude-opus-4-7: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00
gpt-5.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 gpt-5.1: 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00

Median length

Median length per model per week. 2026-W30, 2026-W31 had no run at all, so those columns are shaded and marked “no run”; a plain — means the model was simply not sampled that week.
Model 2026-W172026-W182026-W192026-W202026-W212026-W222026-W232026-W242026-W252026-W262026-W272026-W282026-W292026-W302026-W312026-W322026-W332026-W342026-W352026-W362026-W372026-W382026-W392026-W402026-W412026-W422026-W43 Trend
gpt-6-astra 18 18 gpt-6-astra: 18, 18
llama3.2:3b 54 54 54 54 53 54 54 54 54 34 54 54 54 54 54 52 33 54 54 54 54 54 54 llama3.2:3b (line breaks where no run happened) (change-point marked): 54, 54, 54, 54, 53, 54, 54, 54, 54, 34, 54, no run, no run, 54, 54, 54, 54, 52, 33, 54, 54, 54, 54, 54, 54
qwen3.6:27b 52 qwen3.6:27b: 52
claude-opus-4-8 43 41 43 43 42 claude-opus-4-8 (line breaks where no run happened): 43, no run, no run, 41, 43, 43, 42
claude-opus-5 71 67 claude-opus-5: 71, 67
claude-opus-5-5 62 claude-opus-5-5: 62
gpt-5.5 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 gpt-5.5 (line breaks where no run happened): 13, 13, no run, no run, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13
claude-opus-4-7 20 20 20 61 56 claude-opus-4-7: 20, 20, 20, 61, 56
gpt-5.1 13 13 13 13 13 gpt-5.1: 13, 13, 13, 13, 13

Semantic drift

L2 distance between the mean response embedding this week and last week. Higher = more semantic shift. How this is measured.

Embedding centroid shift per model, 2026-W43.
Model Shift
gpt-6-astra 0.0001
llama3.2:3b 0.0009

Sample responses

Actual responses from 2026-W43, so the numbers above can be checked against what the models said. Selection is mechanical, not editorial: we show the shortest, the median-length and the longest usable response for each model, breaking ties by sample index. Where a model both refused and answered, at least one of each is included. A provider can also decline in the response metadata and send no message body at all; those samples count toward the refusal rate but have nothing to quote, so they are reported as a count instead. Every sample, not just these, is in the week’s raw data. How these are chosen.

gpt-6-astra

20 usable samples this week.

median sample #8 · temp 1.0 · 102 chars · classified answer
Neil Armstrong was the first person to walk on the Moon, in **1969**, during NASA’s Apollo 11 mission.
shortest sample #10 · temp 1.0 · 99 chars · classified answer
Neil Armstrong was the first person to walk on the Moon, in **1969**, during the Apollo 11 mission.
longest sample #19 · temp 1.0 · 102 chars · classified answer
Neil Armstrong was the first person to walk on the Moon, in **1969**, during NASA’s Apollo 11 mission.

llama3.2:3b

25 usable samples this week.

shortest sample #6 · temp 1.0 · 138 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was Neil Armstrong. He stepped onto the lunar surface on July 20, 1969, during the Apollo 11 mission.
longest sample #10 · temp 1.0 · 549 chars · classified answer
Neil Armstrong became the first person to set foot on the Moon, but he wasn't the first one to walk on it. He followed by Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin. The first people to walk on the Moon were: 1. Neil Armstrong (July 20, 1969) - stepped onto the lunar surface 2. Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin (July 20, 1969) - joined Armstrong shortly after However, it was actually Michael Collins who orbited above them, acting as command module pilot and controlling the spacecraft from orbit. The Apollo 11 mission successfully landed on the Moon's surface on July 20, 1969.
median sample #20 · temp 0.0 · 286 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was Neil Armstrong. He stepped onto the lunar surface on July 20, 1969, as part of the Apollo 11 mission. Armstrong famously declared, "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind," as he became the first human to set foot on the Moon.

qwen3.6:27b

25 usable samples this week.

shortest sample #3 · temp 1.0 · 166 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was **Neil Armstrong**. This historic event occurred in **1969** (specifically on July 20, 1969) during NASA's Apollo 11 mission.
longest sample #10 · temp 1.0 · 565 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was **Neil Armstrong**. He achieved this feat in **1969**, specifically on July 20, 1969, during the Apollo 11 mission. ### Key Details: - **Mission:** Apollo 11 - **Date:** July 20, 1969 (landing); July 21, 1969 (UTC) when Armstrong stepped onto the lunar surface. - **Famous Quote:** Upon stepping onto the Moon, Armstrong declared, "That's one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind." - **Second Person:** Buzz Aldrin, the Lunar Module Pilot, became the second person to walk on the Moon shortly after Armstrong.
median sample #12 · temp 1.0 · 320 chars · classified answer
The first person to walk on the Moon was **Neil Armstrong**. He stepped onto the lunar surface on **July 20, 1969**, as part of NASA's Apollo 11 mission. Buddy Coltrane (Buzz Aldrin) followed him approximately 19 minutes later. The mission was commanded by Neil Armstrong, with Michael Collins remaining in lunar orbit.